Economic migration from Balkan countries

and the consequences of this phenomenon

Economic migration

The economic migration from Balkan to Western countries is not a new phenomenon. This, we can say anomaly, is something that is happening for a long time, but it has been multiplied since the beginning of the 1990s. Maybe Slovenia does not have a big problem with this, but it would still be a lie if we say that Slovenia is resistant to it. Other states from former Yugoslavia, along with Albania, Bulgaria and also Greece suffer great damage to the state labor market,  pension fund, and budget because of this problem. Can we be so opened to say that this could be a big security problem for these states? Well, YES! It can be a major problem and we will try to explain why.

According to statistics made from the government of the Republic of Serbia, in the year 2041. in the Republic of Serbia will live around 6.830.008 inhabitants which is 404.091 inhabitants less than in the year 2011. This problem is not only in the number of the population. The problem is more complex than that. In the same year, from the same source of the data, children younger than 15 make up to 14,4% of the population while in the year 2041. it will be 11,7% of the population. At the same time, people older than 65 (now around 17,3%) will make 25,2% in 2041. and the number of people older than 80 years will increase from 3,5% to 7,8% in the same year. These numbers mean that the economy will suffer.

To look inside the problem, first, we have to see who is migrating and why

For this migrations, we had different reasons depending on the situation. Armed conflicts in Croatia, Bosnia and at the and of the 1990s in Kosovo, made people run from war. In the 1990s more than 3.000.000 people migrated in EU countries, the USA, Australia etc. After the year 2000, the reasons are either the political environment or economic reasons but in many cases both of them. Young people don’t see the future in the system that is deeply into corruption nore they see a political figure that will change the country to better. They have lost the trust in the government and the future that they see for themselves is not primarily associated with their mother country. 

train and boy

The problem is not only the number of people that are going to seek for a better life but also, who are those people

Not everyone can get a job in Germany, Austria, Sweden… only those who are experts in the line of industry that is lacking manpower. The states that welcome those experts are growing their economy and states that these people are coming from, will suffer a great labor market problem in the future and not be able to grow their own economy. No state that has a problem with the outflow of young people can expect constant economic growth in the future.

This problem is not a problem for Serbia only. All the states in the Balkans are dealing with a similar problem. Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Greece, Romania… some of those states have a bigger problem and some not so big, but the problem is there. Some of those states are trying to deal with this problem and some are not. However, the problem exists, whether we want to admit it or not.

The big question: What to do with this „drain of brilliance“?​

The term „drain of brilliance“ represents the fact that brilliant people are migrating and looking for a better life and better opportunities. Young people with perspective, whether they are well educated or not. It is not the only problem for the country to stay without engineers, IT experts, doctors… it is problem with simpler jobs that need experience and knowledge also. The electricians, people in the construction industry, wooden industry… that kind of jobs are in demand in western countries as well.  It represents the term when smart people are leaving their country to find an opportunity for a better life. Most of these young people are educated and brilliant in their field and it is a great loss for the country to lose these people for they can be one of the pillars of a good and viable country. Most people that leave those countries are between 24 and 30 years old, although the number of people older than 30 and 40 is not negligible.

 We have to face problems because problems will not solve themselves. The biggest challenge for government is how to deal with that kind of problems and be reelected on the next elections. The measures that the government has to take to fight corruption, poverty, nepotism and other anomalies that follow non-viable state, are not as popular as politicians would like it. In Serbia, the biggest employer is public and not private sector and with that kind of structure, we come to the insolvent country. A country that cannot fill the budget and a country that spends more money than it has. With that situation, the government has to take loans and increase the external debt of the state and young people see that the future is uncertain so they want to get their careers and raise children in a more secure environment.

To answer the question „what to do to stop the decreasing of the population“, we have to know what is the source of this phenomenon

The source can be two things: bigger mortality than natality in a state and migration of the people from the state to another country. If we look it that way, the solution is a little bit complex.

Empty swing

From the year 1930. Serbia doesn’t have natality as big as it would have to be to have a simple reproduction of the population (to have the balance between natality and mortality). To deal with this problem, the government has to do many different decisions. The standard of living has to increase, health care should be better in term of conditions in hospitals, as well as without corruption. Also, the professionalism of the staff is very important but as time is passing it is less and less possible to get to a satisfying level of professionalism and to maintain it. Fantastic doctors are leaving. Nurses, professors, and other people that should be the foundation of professional health care. 

Young couples also expect some benefits for families with more than two children, which every government is promising but they don’t deliver. Every year, Serbia stays without a town of 30.000 people due to small natality, and if this tendency continues that is 300.000 people every ten years, and as we said earlier, the consequence is the older population in a country.  

The other problem is the migration of the people that are searching for a better life in a foreign country. The reason for these migrations is not only bigger salaries although it is the first thing that comes in mind. The problem is bigger than that. The organization „Serbia21“ conducted an extensive survey of people’s attitudes, in parallel with those who still live in Serbia and those who have, for a long time, already left. They came to the result that 22% of the people in Serbia want to go out. It is a devastating fact as well as the fact that around 60.000 people in a year leave Serbia (officially that number is about 35.000-40.000). On the other hand, if we look at Croatia, from entering the EU near 200.000 people left the country, which is about 5% of the population.

Those people that left and wants to leave, are smart people that could be the foundation of the fighting for the better state. According to the same survey, the motives for leaving is the standard of living (41%), better salaries (36%), a bad situation in the country (9%). Young people are disappointed because of the corruption, nepotism, health care, social care and other parts of living that they think the government should make it better.

The government that wants to solve this problem has to have the power and the will to take some effort and aim younger populations expectations. In the last decades, most political parties were promising a better life and a healthy system, but they did a little when got into power. What is that the younger generation wants and why is it hard to get to them? Those generations search for the information on the internet, social networks, forums… they come to an answer what should good state look alike and they develop their opinions in a different way than older people.
People that in the last decades went to western countries were searching for bigger salaries of course, but also for a good and healthy system. For a system that appreciates hard work and references – not nepotism and good connections. And that is where the government has to look for if they want to do better to keep young experts and people that can certainly be the future in one country. You cannot expect to make the health system better if your experienced doctors, surgeons, and nurses are leaving. The state has to give those people a chance to do great things in their own countries!
So, when we look back, can this problem be a security challenge for a country? If we look wider than traditional threats and armed conflicts as the most dangerous security challenges, migration can exemplify a major problem for a state in the future. Normal migrations in normal numbers are not dangerous, but 1% per year is an enormous number of people and is a “silent alarm” for a state to act immediately.
In the end, migrations in these numbers can be, and certainly are one of the contemporary security challenges that the state has to deal with.